Why do they say this? They ran a poll. Why is the poll crap? I’m about to tell you, because this so called “poll” is an insult to poll-lovers and statisticians everywhere. I would accuse them of being ignorant, but they have been proven to be much more deliberate at their attempts to influence opinion for me to believe they are really just this stupid–or that they think the people of White County are this stupid.
(I know the paper is trying to hide behind a local university political science professor that they mention in their story to loan credibility to their poll, but I can almost guarantee he would agree with my analysis below. He may have drafted the questions, but I am highly confident that he didn’t endorse this methodology.)
I ran this poll by a Republican political consultant who has worked on gubernatorial campaigns, ran targeting on congressional campaigns, and has run a targeted 527. Needless to say he has done more than a few polls. He agreed that the poll “has multiple issues with accuracy, and cannot be used to conclude that Lincoln has any kind of a lead.”
The alleged results of the poll:
- Lincoln: 49%
- Haynie: 34%
- Undecided: 17%
And that huge “15 percent” number the paper tosses around can be a little deceiving. The margin represented by that 15% is only 63 votes. They called 410 folks, who we can only assume are actually registered voters, but based on the rest of their “methodology,” I’m not sure that’s a smart assumption.
1. They didn’t poll ‘likely voters.’ This is kind of a big deal. The paper, according to their own story, didn’t make any effort to identify people who were actually likely to vote in the primary. Sure, they asked people ‘do you definitely plan to vote,’ but that’s essentially crap. There is much more that goes into determining likely voters than asking people on the spot, who will almost all say yes out of fear of being considered a ‘bad citizen.’ ”Likely voters” should only be defined as people who, based on their voting history, are actually likely to vote. I know, I’m a conspiracy theorist.
2. They didn’t poll identified Republicans, meaning those who are either registered as Republicans or have consistently voted in Republican primaries. Oh, I’m sorry, you’re doing a Republican primary poll and including Democrats? I’m sure my ‘ultra-partisanship’ will blind me to why this is a good idea. But seriously guys, this is crap. You aren’t getting meaningful results here and, once again, you are misleading the public by purporting crappy poll results as credible.
3. Lincoln’s name was placed first in the poll question. See, the paper knows this is shady because they preemptively defend any attacks by saying, “Well, he’s going to be first on the ballot!” More bull. This isn’t the same as someone going into a polling booth and looking at two options. The results will be slanted heavily towards the first person identified because people want to get off the phone. The order of the names should be randomized. Lincoln easily gained 5-10% from this trick.
Now, just because the results are ‘crap,’ that doesn’t mean we can’t still glean something from them, both statistically and politically speaking. What have we learned?
1. Despite the attempts to slant this poll, Lincoln doesn’t even receive 50%. This is the real story here. Think about this: a 6-year incumbent judge cannot even break 50%, despite being listed first on the poll which easily gave him 5-10%. Subtract 10-points and a nearly 5% margin of error, it is very possible that this race is actually tied (Lincoln -15%, erasing his “+15%”). As an entrenched incumbent, Judge Lincoln should be easily polling above 60% right now, and my consultant friend agreed.
2. This is a very close race. Look, if this wasn’t a close race, the paper wouldn’t be running sketchy polls in an attempt to help out their favorite judge. It’s really that simple.
Despite what you’ll read in the paper, these poll results are very good news for lovers of liberty & transparent government in White County.
I’ve had an email conversation with TMZARK’s news director, Austin Kellerman, and he confirmed that he had spoken with Arkansas Business about his organization’s newly adopted social media policies–the ones where they use pictures of dead & injured people for self-glorification. But Kellerman declined to answer any of my questions.
Now Kellerman’s comments to AB have been published, and here’s what we have learned:
1. TMZARK has heard me, they just don’t care.
From the article:
“I don’t think it’s fair for people to say we’re benefiting from it in any way,” Kellerman told Outtakes in an email. “This doesn’t help us grow our base or gain new fans…We’re simply giving an opportunity to people who already like our page to express themselves.”
And as AB’s Kate Knable correctly points out, that statement is not exactly true, regardless of Kellerman’s intentions. We have documented how TMZARK is benefiting from their strategy. Sorry you don’t think it’s fair, dude, but it is what it is.d
2. Kellerman is actually the one making these posts!
Seeing as how he is the news director, that probably explains why he hasn’t been fired.
“I posted a story on our Facebook page about a state trooper being shot outside of Hope. I was amazed by the response from people wishing him well in his recovery and sending their thoughts and prayers,” Kellerman said.
I’m so happy he amazed himself. Are the families of the deceased impressed?
3. “Kellerman doesn’t see the need to ensure that clicked thoughts and prayers reach the parties for whom they were intended.”
“In this day and age, I have no doubt friends and family of those involved will inform them about all the support they’ve received online,” he said.
Summary: this is all about supporting the families, but we don’t really care if they actually see the support.
Kellerman’s comments essentially confirm all of my suspicions about TMZARK: they don’t really care about the insensitivity or the people they’re hurting.
Don’t believe me? Think about it like this: the main goal is to ‘support the families,’ but nothing is done to let the families know about the ‘support & prayers?’ Because in the middle of their grief, the first thing a suffering family wants to do is wander out to TMZARK’s Facebook page and see a picture of their deceased loved one with 4,000 ‘likes,’ right?
I think if Kellerman were to be completely honest with us, he would admit that he’s not being completely honest with us or that he lacks a basic understanding of how social media works. Either way, for your sake, I sincerely hope none of your family members tragically die and you’re subjected to TMZARK’s compassion.
I’m starting to think I could make a living off of KARK making a living off of people dying.
From their Facebook page last night:
A few things wrong here.
First of all, the obvious: someone has died and so KARK is taking advantage of it by asking for ‘likes,’ which directly benefits them, as we have shown previously.
Secondly, ‘liking’ that post will not enable Facebook users to continue to receive updates on the post. That’s just not how Facebook works. It’s not like commenting on a post where you are automatically enrolled to receive follow-up notifications of other comments. ’Liking’ this story helps KARK. That’s about it. Either KARK doesn’t understand Facebook (unlikely), or they are knowingly deceiving their followers.
Every time I post about KARK’s grotesque social media practices, I remain hopeful that they will change their policies (I have had conversations with their news director, as have other media outlets, so I know they’re aware of what is being said). And every time, KARK fails to change.
I am not going to make this the ‘anti-KARK blog.’ I don’t intend to write much more about this topic. But this particular post just made my stomach flop in a different way than the others & it deserved a mention. The insensitivity & crassness of these people is still shocking.
And frankly, I’m not alone in my feelings towards the organization’s recent social media practices. I’ve been seeing tweets for days directed @the organization, expressing disgust & displeasure for their conduct. People are literally begging for mercy. (We have retweeted some of them)
So what is Arkansas’ premiere tabloid news org up to now?
News broke earlier today that Bobby Petrino had exchanged a great amount of text messages with another young lady in Arkansas, other than Jessica Dorrell, the passenger on his motorcycle when he wrecked it.
Once the story broke, it was a horse race to see which Little Rock news outlet would pounce on it first. Thankfully, I had all my money on KARK. (To my knowledge, they haven’t asked for any ‘likes’ or retweets yet, but there is still time.)
I had already decided that I would not post about this story, but TMZARK is kind of forcing me to. However, out of respect for the Petrino family & the young lady, I am not even going to link to the story here, and instead will only link to a Facebook post that TMZARK made earlier because I want you to see the comments, the overwhelming majority of which are begging TMZARK to stop the madness.
Some of the best ones so far:
- I understand this was a public employee. There is a chance that a lawsuit from Petrino might come out of all this. But seriously, enough is enough. When something really big happens in the case, then post about it. You guys sound like the National Enquirer. Enough already!Honestly, who cares? Why don’t you report some real news? Maybe how the fires from 2005-2012 has affected residents, firefighters and police officers of Mtn. Pine.
- Beat that dead horse!
- Maybe if everyone says they don’t care they will get the picture
- If everryone wouldnt make comments and just ignore it they would probably stop
- Who gives a crap!!! Heard enough about this already!! Find something else to talk about!!!
- Kark is turning into losers:/ Do yall just not get it or wat are yall really that ignorant you get all these negative post but you still keep talking bout the same dumb *@&!
- it’s getting old
- You guys really need to move on from this story or change your website to ArkansasIrrelevancies.com
- And bye bye KARK.
- REALLY!! REALLY!! Out of respect for his wife an family, can the media just DROP IT!! PLEASE!!! It’s over!
- kark how come you didnt post about brett cummins as much as you are doing about petrino??????????????????????????????????
- Are we going to find out how many times he called Dominoes for pizza delivery too??? Give it a rest already KARK. You are seriously making me reconsider you as a serious news agency.
- beat that dead horse even after its buried.!!!!
- I would like to see this much attention given to skyrocketing fuel prices with no disruption in supply! There is no shortage, there haven’t been any international incidents to cause the hike, but prices still soar! Why can’t yall beat that horse for a while?
- This post sounds more like the Enquirer than something from a professional local news station. KARK I am disappointed.
- Y’all done turned into gossip news channel !!!!
- Why did Bobby Petrino text Brett Cummins so often?
I would like to re-issue my call for KARK & the other LR networks to just end the madness. Petrino is gone. The state, by and large, is hurting. This just more sensationalism. It is case and point why the majority of people resent the media. Let. It. Go.
I have tried to warn them for a few weeks now that a backlash was coming. People do not like this stuff.
And I don’t want you people to think I am just obsessed with TMZARK, but I do want you to know I’m not alone in my distaste for their ‘strategy.’ Honestly, I just want them to stop.