Big news today for the Cain campaign: Public Policy Polling has released results from a poll that shows Herman Cain now leading Mitt Romney by 8% nationally, matching his 8% lead over the ‘front-runner’ Romney in Iowa. Cain pulled 30% to Romney’s 22%. To my knowledge, Romney has surpassed 30% nationally this election cycle.
Gingrich also made a big move by surpassing Rick Perry for the first time at 15%.
More evidence that Romney’s victory is not as inevitable as some think.
The poll also shows other very interesting trends: when asked, “If the Republican race came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?,” 48% say Herman Cain, while only 36% say Mitt Romney. This confirms something that I pointed out last night: when the other candidates vacate the field, leaving Romney and one of the conservative top-tier candidates, the other candidate wins.
The same question was asked about a Perry-Romney head-to-head matchup: Perry received 38% to Romney’s 48%, with 14% undecided.
Cain beats Perry head-to-head, 55-27, with 17% unsure.
Another question was posed about Romney, Perry, and Cain: “Do you think that ____ is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?”
51% said Romney is “about right,” 53% said Perry is “about right,” but 71% think Cain is “about right.”
Cain also has the highest favorability in the race at 66%, with the next closest being Gingrich at 57%–both higher than Romney’s 55%. Newt Gingrich, despite all of his political baggage, and Herman Cain, a virtual unknown this time last year, have higher favorability than someone who has campaigned for president for 5 years, with a huge campaign war chest.
The results of the poll show:
- Herman Cain – 30%
- Mitt Romney – 22%
- Newt Gingrich – 15%
- Rick Perry – 14%
- Michele Bachmann – 5%
- Ron Paul – 5%
- Jon Hunstman – 2%
- Rick Santorum – 1%
The poll was conducted October 7th-10th, so it does not take into account the Christie endorsement of Romney yesterday or last night’s debate.