National Poll Shows Cain Leading Romney by 8%

Big news today for the Cain campaign:  Public Policy Polling has released results from a poll that shows Herman Cain now leading Mitt Romney by 8% nationally, matching his 8% lead over the ‘front-runner’ Romney in Iowa.  Cain pulled 30% to Romney’s 22%.   To my knowledge, Romney has surpassed 30% nationally this election cycle.

Gingrich also made a big move by surpassing Rick Perry for the first time at 15%.

More evidence that Romney’s victory is not as inevitable as some think.

The poll also shows other very interesting trends:  when asked, “If the Republican race came down to Mitt Romney and Herman Cain, who would you vote for?,” 48% say Herman Cain, while only 36% say Mitt Romney.  This confirms something that I pointed out last night:  when the other candidates vacate the field, leaving Romney and one of the conservative top-tier candidates, the other candidate wins.

The same question was asked about a Perry-Romney head-to-head matchup:  Perry received 38% to Romney’s 48%, with 14% undecided.

Cain beats Perry head-to-head, 55-27, with 17% unsure.

Another question was posed about Romney, Perry, and Cain: “Do you think that ____ is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?”

51% said Romney is “about right,” 53% said Perry is “about right,” but 71% think Cain is “about right.”

Cain also has the highest favorability in the race at 66%, with the next closest being Gingrich at 57%–both higher than Romney’s 55%.  Newt Gingrich, despite all of his political baggage, and Herman Cain, a virtual unknown this time last year, have higher favorability than someone who has campaigned for president for 5 years, with a huge campaign war chest.

The results of the poll show:

  • Herman Cain – 30%
  • Mitt Romney – 22%
  • Newt Gingrich – 15%
  • Rick Perry – 14%
  • Michele Bachmann – 5%
  • Ron Paul – 5%
  • Jon Hunstman – 2%
  • Rick Santorum – 1%

The poll was conducted October 7th-10th, so it does not take into account the Christie endorsement of Romney yesterday or last night’s debate.
Nic Horton


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