A new Insider Advantage poll shows Speaker Newt Gingrich now ahead of former Governor Mitt Romney in South Carolina by three points.
This poll was conducted & released before news of Rick Perry’s pending endorsement today, before Rick Santorum was declared the winner of Iowa this morning, and just one day after Sarah Palin‘s endorsement of the Speaker.
Multiple news sources now reporting that at 11:00 EST, Texas Governor Rick Perry will drop out of the GOP presidential race and endorse former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
This is really an incredible development, especially considering that we all went to bed last night thinking that the story of the next three days would be Gingrich’s ex-wife’s primetime interview. Now, going into tonight’s debate, the entire national story line is Perry-Gingrich.
Now that Romney is clearly, clearly threatened (their campaign has been showing signs of this in the last few days), it will be interesting to see what demeanor he takes on in tonight’s debate. I suspect he will come out swinging.
I’ve seen a ton of headlines this week that read something like “Gingrich in free fall,” “Gingrich sliding,” “Newt imploding,” etc. He’s had a pretty fair response: “Well, when you have other candidates running $9 million of negative ads against you, most of them untrue, it makes sense.” These headlines are usually followed by some glowing review of Ron Paul‘s candidacy and his ‘surge.’ (have you noticed how all of the liberals are now praising Paul?) The latest buzz, in the last 48 hours or so, has been all about Rick Santorum‘s surge in Iowa. But is Newt really tanking and are Paul & Santorum really competing nationally?
This graph from Gallup’s tracking poll does show a decline for Gingrich since 12/4, after Herman Cain exited the race and Newt meteorically rose in the polls. However, it shows the former speaker tied with Romney for 1st place, and Ron Paul still lagging well behind the pack, with Santorum still in single digits:
Gallup will update these numbers at 1:00 EST today.
As I reported last month, Harris was previously one of the 19 Arkansas legislators to ask Rick Perry to join the presidential race, but withdrew support from Perry last month after the Texas governor’s statements about immigration.
Harris tells NWA Online that he believes Gingrich knows how to fix things and has the ability to bring the country together.
To my knowledge, he is the first state legislator in Arkansas to publicly endorse Gingrich.
I keep hearing all of these comments about the “inevitability of Romney” as the Republican nominee. Perhaps I could understand if Romney was really the front-runner–everyone likes a winner, so it would be somewhat understandable to see people moving his way. What’s troubling me is how a candidate can campaign for president for 5 years, have (virtually) unlimited resources, and still pull barely 20% in national primary polls.
I have asked several of my Romney-supporting friends this simple question and I am yet to receive an answer: “What is Mitt Romney’s path to the Republican nomination?” What I want to hear is a specific path, state by state.
Will he win Iowa? Doubtful. He had reportedly withdrawn from the state, not participating in its straw poll. A new poll today from Public Policy Polling shows Cain leading there by 8 points.
Will he win New Hampshire? Yes, probably.
Will he win South Carolina? It’s possible, but looking increasingly uncertain. Monday, Cain took a slight lead in a poll out of that state.
Will he win Florida? Possibly, but again, Cain is surging, rising to a statistical tie with Romney there last week.
Another poll released today shows a statistical tie between Cain & Romney in Virginia.
And at the end of the day, this comes down to simple arithmetic. There are 8 candidates running for president. Mitt Romney has about 20% support nationally. This means that 1 out of 5 Republican voters want someone other than Mitt Romney. And when the lower tier candidates begin dropping out, the remaining 50-60% of support left in the field is not going to go to Mitt Romney.
Romney may draw some votes from Hunstman supporters, but no one is voting for him anyway. The other 5 conservative candidates’ supporters–Bachmann, Perry, Paul, Gingrich, Cain & Santorum, minus the one that will ultimately square off with Romney–will go to the non-Romney candidate. Their cumulative support currently totals about 80%. The person left standing to face Romney, barring unforeseen events, will likely be the GOP nominee.
What is critical here is timing: if too many of the conservative candidates stay in too long, they could end up splitting the votes in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida, giving Romney enough of an edge to prevail. If enough of them get out of the race–soon–they could rally behind one of the top-tier conservative candidates and easily defeat Romney.
I’m not saying Romney can’t win, I’m not saying he can’t beat Obama; but he is a vulnerable candidate with no clear, predestined path to the nomination, despite the conventional wisdom in the media & party establishment. Nothing is inevitable in politics.
The Arkansas Patriot is a conservative organization dedicated to equipping citizens with the truth, insuring transparent government, and encouraging citizens to question their government boldly. Contact The Patriot at firstname.lastname@example.org
Herman Cain had a great line in tonight’s debate when responding to the moderator’s question about his 9-9-9 plan. His response? “The problem with that analysis is that it is incorrect.”
The audience roared with laughter–it was a funny line, for sure. But perhaps it was funnier than even the audience realized.
While not an exact quote, the remarks are strikingly similar to comments exchanged between Cain & President Clinton during a HillaryCare ‘town hall meeting’ in 1993.
Here’s the clip, time mark 4:45:
If you’ve been anywhere near a television in the last 10 days, you’ve likely heard the name Herman Cain. Cain has been on a meteoric rise in the GOP primary, partially due to the difficulties the Perry & Bachmann campaigns have been experiencing. But to attribute Cain’s rise completely to the lack of a sufficient alternative, as many pundits are doing, is not quite fair.
Allow me to share 3 points, in Cain-fashion, about why Cain’s rise is genuine & will be sustained.
1. Confidence. While dining with some friends recently, one of my buddies turned to another and said, “Man, I just don’t understand. How do you get all these pretty girls?” My other friend simply replied, “It’s easy. It’s just confidence.” And that was Herman Cain’s philosophy for courting his wife and for courting the American voters .
In his new book, Cain talks extensively about growing up in the segregated South, and the difficulties his family encountered. But one thing is for sure: Herman Cain is no victim, and he attributes this victorious, confident mentality to his parents’ unwavering values.
[Dad] never allowed his starting point in life or the racial conditions of his time to be excuses for failing to pursue his dreams.
Cain also speaks repeatedly in the book of his determination in life, saying that the quickest way to motivate him is to tell him that he can’t do something. He even pursued (and obtained) his masters degree at Purdue in part because his boss in the Department of the Navy told him he couldn’t do it.
Since entering the presidential race, Cain has projected confidence, conducting himself like a front-runner despite the fact that the majority of the electorate had not even heard of him.
His confidence has served him well. After participating in the first presidential debate in May, Frank Luntz’s focus group declared him the winner with nearly 50% of the vote. Since that time, momentum has been building, with Cain rising steadily in the polls and now leading in South Carolina, a key primary state.
Now that Cain has achieved ‘top-tier status,’ he’s not backing down from his tell-it-like-it-is, confident approach. As a prelude to tonight’s debate in New Hampshire, he says he is “going after Romney.”
Perhaps there is no better example of Cain’s boldness than his “9-9-9 plan.” The plan would institute a 9% national sales tax, 9% income tax, and a 9% corporate tax.
When Herman Cain was asked why he is running for president, he replied, “To BE president…America has problems! I am a problem-solver!”
In the face of insurmountable odds throughout his life, Cain’s confidence has never wavered. It won’t waiver now.
2. Business experience. It goes without saying that voters are craving jobs & a leader with real business experience. Many GOP voters have looked for the past year towards Mitt Romney for this leadership. That is beginning to change.
As more of Romney’s governing record comes to light, voters are turning elsewhere. Perry drew a lot of them to his camp in August as he entered the race, touting Texas’ record of job creation during his time as governor. There is no doubt that the Texas record is impressive, but Romney has done an adequate job of dismantling Perry’s “job cred” during the last few debates, reminding voters that government does not create jobs.
Now voters are looking for a businessman with a conservative record, a problem-solver. And they’re finding it in Herman Cain.
You probably know the story: Cain’s father worked three jobs in order to save enough money to send his kids to college. Herman graduated college and went on to be an executive at Pillsbury, Burger King, and then CEO of Godfather’s Pizza. He’s solved problems, he’s signed paychecks–and he’s maintained his integrity along the way.
Cain’s strong record as a businessman and long-established problem-solving abilities are his greatest political assets. And they won’t depreciate.
3. Inspiration. The Herman Cain story is an American story. It is a story of hard work, discipline, and confidence. Starting from nothing, and rising to the top; fulfilling the American dream–Cain says his American dream was “to have a job that paid $20,000 a year.” He has far surpassed this.
If you’ve never heard Herman Cain speak, venture over to YouTube. He almost always begins with a quote from a founding father or philosopher. His speeches are always filled with 3-to-5 point lists of solutions to different problems. And his deep voice fills up any room, captivating audiences with his oratory skills, much like Obama did in 2008.
Not only are Cain’s story & speaking abilities inspiring, but his message is inspiring as well. Low taxes, clear foreign policy, a plan to roll back excessive federal regulations–starting with the EPA–and perhaps most inspiring of all, a commonsense approach to the problems America is facing. He’s a cancer survivor, an achiever of the American dream. Whether he’s your choice for president or not, there’s no denying that Herman Cain is an inspiration.
Many in the ‘establishment’ are promoting the notion that Cain’s time in the spotlight is only temporary, much like Bachmann and Perry. But Herman Cain has risen to the top tier on the merits of Herman Cain; because of confidence, business experience, and his ability to inspire audiences with style and substance.
Cain’s simple message and ability to instill confidence, lead from experience, and inspire people have made him a serious contender for the GOP nomination–and he’s not going anywhere.